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Drake Equation
, the result is still a disappointing low number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy with which contact is possible:
N = R * f_p * n_e * f_l * f_i * F_C * L
with
R = 10 / y (star formation rate: estimation of number of stars in Milky 1011/1010 y age universe)
f_p n_e * = 1 / 1000 (probability for planets in the size of Earth Kepler measurements)
f_l = 2 / 10 (probability of the emergence of life)
f_c = 1 / 100 (probability of life with interest in communication)
L = 10000y (lifetime of a technological civilization)
With the above factors (adapted from
Drake Equation
) results
N = 1 / 500
words the number of alien Zivililisationen in the Milky Way where we could communicate with is much less as 1 Extrapolated to the entire universe (100 billion Milky Way-like galaxies) yields N = 200 million, or about one civilization per galaxy clusters. The distance to the nearest civilization is according to these assessments, then approximately at 1-10 million light years. This is damn far, and a contact virtually impossible. That would explain why we are so far still no alien encounters.
However, the Drake equation is of course not really taken seriously: the right factors f_l, f_i, f_c and L are unknown, Drake estimated the above data easy. Instead of the Drake equation, one could also
the equation of the Rare Earth hypothesis
use. Cunning is one of them but not, because they also are scheduled most of the factors is rather arbitrary.
So you can say in spite of the many Earth-like planets are not really about the number of extraterrestrial civilizations. However, there is a probability of 1 means that within 100 light years (about 1000 stars), an Earth-like planet exists. This could theoretically reach just in life span of a man, if you travel at light speed.
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